As the shelling and blockade of Gaza by the Israeli army enters its second month, Beijing is showing signs that it is increasingly worried about a wider escalation. The topic is reportedly on the agenda for the meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng later this week, and will likely come up when Presidents Biden and Xi meet face to face in San Francisco next week. Although dissatisfied with China’s intensifying criticism of Israel’s response to the 7 October attack by Hamas, the United States is still hopeful that China will be able to influence Iran in some regard on the issue. But as economic ties between Tehran and Beijing continue to develop (albeit slowly), it doesn’t seem likely that China is going to lean on its ally anytime soon.
Fears of Escalation Grow as China Continues Criticism of Israel
Chinese media coverage continued to be critical of Israel’s war on Hamas this week, showing increased concern over wider escalation in Lebanon. One article quoted several analysts making the point that “it will not be easy for Israel to achieve its goal” due to expenditures, international pressure, public opinion, and the fundamentally difficult task of rooting out a deeply-entrenched, ideologically potent organization like Hamas. Another article took a pessimistic view of Hasan Nasrallah’s speech on 3 November, writing that “Nasrallah warned in a televised speech … that if Israel cannot stop its attacks on the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may escalate into a regional conflict.… [Nasrallah] also said that the confrontation with Israel on Lebanon’s southern border may escalate further, depending on Israel’s behavior, and Hezbollah is ready for all possibilities.” This contrasts with the response of many in the Western media, who focused on the fact that Nasrallah had not yet declared a wider escalation. Despite this more pessimistic outlook, the risks of a wider conflict are depicted as “still within control” with “no obvious signs of the war expanding,” despite clashes in Lebanon, Syria, and with the Houthis in Yemen.
Chinese officials echoed these reports, maintaining their constant line that the “root cause” of the conflict was the lack of a two-state solution and calling for an “authoritative” international commission to handle mediation and implementation. At the same time, criticism of Israel continues to subtly escalate as Palestinian authorities report the death toll in Gaza passes 10,000, with a high number of civilian casualties. Geng Shuang, deputy permanent representative of China to the United Nations, did not explicitly take sides when he said, “Human life is equally precious, and neither Palestinian nor Israeli civilians should become victims of armed conflict.” But his subsequent comments were clearly aimed at Israel, calling for “the safety of United Nations staff, humanitarian and medical workers” and saying that “civilian facilities such as hospitals, schools, and refugee camps should not be targeted by military operations. These red lines stipulated in international humanitarian law cannot be touched, and the bottom line of international morality and human conscience cannot be breached.” He went on to call on Israel to “lift the blockade” and stop the “collective punishment” of the people of Gaza. Wang Wenbin was more diplomatic in his comments, but he still emphasized that while all countries have the right to self-defense, “they should abide by international law.”
Can China Temper Iran?
Beijing’s response has been largely unsatisfying to both Israel and the United States, who accuse China of being insufficiently supportive of Israel. But it is still hopeful that China may be able to contribute something positive to the conflict by using its influence to “temper” Iran’s response. After meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, one U.S. official said, “We … pressed China to take a more constructive approach, and that would include of course their engagements with the Iranians to urge calm.” Reports have also emerged that Gaza and the Middle East are on the agenda for a meeting this week between Yellen and He.
But can China urge Iran to temper its behavior? The only leverage China has is the threat of reducing economic engagement, which is already relatively sluggish and heavily focused on private sector business rather than government-led operations. As we have discussed here before, China has been slow to invest due to a variety of obstacles, including the difficulty of doing business in Iran and the ever-present threat of U.S. sanctions. Not to put too fine a point on it, but there isn’t much business to cancel.
Furthermore, recent signs suggest that Sino-Iranian economic relations are slowly but surely expanding, albeit at nothing close to the rate predicted by Western analysts and desired by the Iranian government. Several Iranian officials attended the 6th China International Import Expo (CIIE), where they announced the “second step” in the implementation of the 25-year agreement. Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber-Dezfuli announced that the delegation was “determined to remove the obstacles in the way of cooperation between Iranian and Chinese companies.” The discussions were mostly focused on private companies, reflecting the Chinese government’s continued reluctance to invest at the state level, but Iranian officials claimed that they had reached several agreements to resolve ongoing issues between Iranian and Chinese companies, although details were scarce. “We are going to witness a significant growth in economic cooperation and investment between the two sides with the implementation of these projects,” claimed Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khanduzi.
While details of new initiatives remain scarce, one thing is clear: trade between Iran and China has been steadily increasing to China’s benefit. According to official statistics, exports to China in the first seven months of 2023 were around $8 billion, a 12-percent decrease from last year, while imports reached $10 billion. While trade is remaining relatively steady and showing moderate growth in absolute terms, the balance of trade between the two countries is increasingly in China’s favor. Chinese private refineries have also been benefiting from heavily discounted Iranian oil. With so many benefits and an added incentive to keep Iran happy in the wake of the Beijing-brokered Iran-Saudi normalization deal, it seems unlikely China would pressure Iran in exchange for vague promises of good behavior.
