China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran joined hands over the weekend to re-affirm their commitment to the Beijing-brokered normalization deal. Since the agreement was struck in March of 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia have rapidly thawed relations, exchanging ambassadors and extending official invitations. The meeting in Beijing marked the inaugural session of the China-Saudi Arabia-Iran joint committee, specially convened to address the normalization process. Clearly, all three countries were eager to project the image of stability during a moment of regional upheaval, sending the message that business is proceeding as usual. But as Iranian voices expressing dissatisfaction with China continue to grow louder, it begs the question of whether Tehran is starting to sour on Beijing, normalization deal or no normalization deal.
Send in the Photographers
Posing with his hands jovially clapped on the back of Iranian Deputy Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and his Saudi counterpart, Waleed al-Khuraiji, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was the picture of optimism over the prospects of China’s signature Middle East diplomatic achievement of the past year. At the first meeting of the new tripartite joint committee, Wang said he was confident that “Saudi Arabia and Iran are fully capable of removing external interference promptly and pushing the reconciliation process forward to maintain long-term peace and stability in the region.” According to Wang, the agreement is the beginning of a new era in regionally-driven peace efforts, saying “the Middle East can no longer become a geopolitical arena for the global powers, and the fate of the Middle East should be in the hands of the peoples of the countries of the region.”
The three therefore took the occasion to issue a joint call for humanitarian assistance, a short-term ceasefire, and a long-term negotiated peace in Gaza, reflecting China’s desire to make diplomatic hay out of a crisis over which it has little practical control. “China has always stood by Arab and Muslim countries and supported the restoration of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people,” said Wang on Friday. “The most urgent task is to promote a ceasefire in Gaza, to stop the war, to promote humanitarian assistance, and to resume the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.” This has been China’s consistent position since the beginning of the conflict, as it fears a wider spillover that could disrupt shipping lanes and oil shipments.
Uncle Sam: Regional Enemy Number One
By referencing “external interference” and the machinations of “global powers,” Wang undoubtedly meant the role of the United States or the destabilizing influence of Israel’s war in Gaza, also blamed on the United States in official media. This reflects one of China’s main goals in engaging in this sort of diplomatic mediation: making China look good in the eyes of the average Chinese citizen. To achieve this, the media emphasizes China’s efforts to engage with the region diplomatically. However, this inevitably runs up against the problem that China’s diplomatic pull in the region is often quite modest and is frequently frustrated by US policy or limitations on their actual influence. One strategy to mitigate this is to emphasize rather than deny US opposition to Chinese initiatives in the region.
It Takes Three to Tango
Despite the confident facade and the obligatory finger pointing at the US, however, one could detect a hint of anxiety underlying Wang’s comments, who also urged the two sides to come together to “avoid miscalculation,” reflecting fears voiced by Chinese and Western analysts that the thaw in relations may only last until the next diplomatic incident. Wang expressed hope that instead, the two sides would “continue to enhance mutual trust through dialogue and consultation, and achieve a lasting and comprehensive good-neighborly friendship.”
As far as Iran is concerned, China is the “third side” whose actions don’t seem to rise to the rhetoric. All the smiles and friendly words of the officials in Beijing can’t conceal the fact that relations between Iran and China remain on shaky ground. As mentioned in PersuMedia’s Daily Summary from 15 December, more and more conservative news outlets are beginning to raise concerns about China. One official, former cultural attache to China Ali Mohammad Sabeqi, argued that China does not prioritize its relationship with Iran due to its fears over harming relations with Washington. Raising the issue of the long-delayed Tehran Metro renovation project and comparing it to recently approved railroad development projects in Saudi Arabia, he argued that China is “not willing to trade their 500 billion dollar business relationship with America for a 15 billion dollar relationship with Iran.” While hardline conservative outlets remain supportive of the government leaning towards China, more and more outlets are beginning to voice concerns about China’s lack of commitment to Iran.
One wonders why the concerns are being raised so late in the game when it was clear to any outside observer from the beginning that China’s “commitment” would only ever be commensurate with Iran’s ability to make it pay. Ultimately, however, the back and forth among Iranian pundits over China’s loyalty or perfidy won’t amount to much or have any impact on the course of Chinese-Iranian relations. Iranians, both official and unofficial may grumble about a lack of Chinese commitment, but Iran needs China to continue to purchase its oil and has few other friends to turn to. For now, China will most likely continue to hedge its bets between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Iranian officials will most likely continue to complain bitterly, with some justification but little or no irony, about its continued exploitation by greater powers.
