As Israel continues its bombardment of Gaza in anticipation of a ground assault, China has (with some reluctance) become increasingly invested in supporting a political settlement in the Middle East. After an initially cautious and relatively neutral reaction, China has continued to avoid condemning either side while criticizing Israel’s response to the Hamas attack. China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, was unusually busy this week, meeting with scores of regional leaders and attending the Cairo peace conference just days after U.S. President Joe Biden wrapped up a much-publicized trip to Israel. Xi Jinping himself even deemed it necessary to comment on the situation—a reflection of China’s growing concern with regional escalation—drawing a stark contrast between the positions of China and the U.S. Meanwhile, Chinese policy in the Middle East has remained relatively unchanged, maintaining a focus on Saudi Arabia that leaves Iran wanting more. And although it’s too early to tell, it could be that China’s reaction to this latest crisis suggests Beijing views the Arab states as the geo-economic and geopolitical anchor for its policies in the Middle East as opposed to Iran—at least until Tehran gets its domestic and regional act together. As for Israel, it is unlikely Jerusalem can afford to give the world’s second largest economy the cold shoulder for long, despite its pique with Beijing over its position vis-à-vis the current conflict with Hamas.
Zhai Jun: China committed to negotiated settlement and two-state solution
Zhai met with several officials in the region this week, including Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the League of Arab States, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, Minister of State of the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian President’s special envoy for the Middle East and Africa. In each of these meetings, Zhai expressed China’s dismay at the current situation and, addressing the grievances of both sides, called for a settlement on the basis of a two-state solution. The meetings took place in the context of Zhai’s attendance at the Cairo Summit for Peace on the Palestinian Question in Egypt, throwing Chinese support behind regional efforts to negotiate a settlement. China has been signaling its regionally-driven peace initiatives since the beginning of the conflict, when Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Beijing supported the Arab League’s role in finding a solution to the conflict. Wang said at the time that China and Arab countries had similar positions on the Palestinian issue, with both believing that the international community should play an effective role in providing humanitarian support to the Palestinian people and promote the resumption of peace talks as soon as possible.
Zhai’s activities in the region have been largely along the same lines. At the Cairo Summit, it was reported that his comments focused on how “[the] international community should uphold objectivity and justice, and take practical measures.” He proposed that the United Nations should support the convening of a large-scale, “more authoritative and more influential” international peace conference without delay. Commenting on state television after the conference, Zhai said China was ready to do “whatever is conducive” to dialogue and promoting a cease-fire in the days to come. Whatever his intentions, it is unlikely that China will find a willing partner in Israel, especially as it continues to adopt an insufficiently supportive stance in the eyes of Tel Aviv. Zhai’s comments come at a time when China is escalating its criticism of the Israeli response, while news reports continue to emphasize the devastation in Gaza and the possibility that the scope of the conflict will widen. Wang Yi said last week that Israel’s actions in the war have “gone beyond self defense” and criticized the collective punishment of the citizens of Gaza.
Enter Xi Jinping
It was during a meeting with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly of Egypt that Xi Jinping made his first public remarks on the subject, which deviated little from China’s official stance. Xi stated that China’s “top priority is to stop the fighting as soon as possible, prevent the conflict from spreading or even getting out of control and causing a severe humanitarian crisis.” He identified the “fundamental way out of recurring conflict” to be the implementation of a two-state solution. Xi offered Egypt China’s support in its efforts to reduce tensions, like the Cairo Peace Conference, as well as efforts to deliver humanitarian aid across the Rafah border crossing. China “stands ready to strengthen coordination with Egypt and other Arab countries to work for a comprehensive, just and enduring solution to the Palestinian question at an early date.”
Xi’s comments are less interesting for their content and more for what they signal about China’s rising concern about the situation. Beijing has every reason to fear a wider escalation, given its investments in the region and recent diplomatic commitment to supporting the “wave of reconciliation” that was seemingly sweeping the region just a few short months ago. But its actions have thus far shown a reluctance to become too deeply involved. This is likely because their sway over the situation is mostly limited to their present activities, playing a largely supportive role and calling for a cease-fire, but being fundamentally unable to bring Israel to the negotiating table. The fact that Xi has now commented directly reflects the “very serious” and “worrisome” concerns voiced by Zhai that China has about a wider escalation. At the same time, it reflects China’s growing self-conception as an international power with a role to play in the Middle East. It demonstrates that Beijing is determined not to be left on the sidelines of regional issues, and to delineate a contrast with the U.S. position.
Business as Usual with Saudi Arabia
As the conflict drags on, China’s economic and diplomatic approach to the region continues largely uninterrupted. On 19 October, around 300 Chinese “decision-makers” attended Saudi Arabia’s annual “Future Investment Initiative” (FII) conference, doubling the number of attendees from last year. It was also announced that China and Saudi Arabia are engaged in talks for the latter to acquire a number of medium-sized unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV), enhancing defense ties between the two. China Daily published an op-ed hailing Sino-Saudi trade ties, which grew to almost $110 billion in 2023, and predicting that they would “see strong growth momentum in the years ahead, driven by the alignment of economic interests and concerted efforts to enhance synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Vision 2030.”
No Business as Usual with Iran
Meanwhile, Sino-Iranian relations continue to lag behind, leaving many Iranians to continue to question the value of the “look East” policy. Iran International published an article highlighting the gap and pointing out that Iran was left out of all of the major transportation projects announced last year, making it difficult to consider it as integrated in the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran has continued to tout what little cooperation there is, but so far ties have remained at the regional level. At the China (Chongqing)-Iran Forum For Global Economic and Trade Cooperation held on 23 October, Hamidreza Gholamzadeh-Natanzi, deputy for international affairs of the Tehran Municipality, highlighted what Iran could learn from China, namely “digitized technologies,” but said nothing about the size of bilateral investments or trade agreements.
In short, despite the turmoil, little has changed. China continues to invest heavily in Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, undeterred by fears of a wider regional conflict. At the same time, its investment in Iran continues to lag behind despite the China-brokered peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. For now, China seems content with, and limited to, playing a symbolic role in the conflict, striking a contrast to the United States by calling for a ceasefire and offering limited criticism of the Israeli response.
