China’s response to the Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli siege of Gaza has been a major topic of international news, but this week it came to bear on another long-term, intractable world conflict: the status of Taiwan. Despite bold comments by Hamas leadership that China would soon follow their example in waging war against Israel, there is little evidence to suggest any change in Chinese policy. But there are other consequences of Beijing’s diplomatic approach in the Middle East, including an increasingly warm relationship between Taiwan and Israel.
“The Arabs are Giving the World a Masterclass”
Former Hamas Chairman Khaled Mashal was not shy when he boasted on October 29th about Chinese and Russian support for Hamas in an effort to entice other organizations into joining an “all-out war” against Israel. Mashal claimed that the Palestinians wanted “cooperation with superpowers like China and Russia,” and that “Russia has benefited” from their October 7th attack “because we distracted the U.S. from them and from Ukraine…The Russians told us that what happened on October 7 would be taught in military academies.” Furthermore, he claimed that “China saw (our attack) as a dazzling example” and that Beijing was “thinking of carrying out a plan in Taiwan, doing what the Al-Qassam Brigades did on October 7…the Arabs are giving the world a master class.”
Of course, there is little reason to believe that Mashal is speaking from anything other than his own desires, or at best, to flatter Russian or Chinese officials. The odds are extraordinarily low that he speaks on the basis of some kind of inside knowledge. It is clear enough why he would want to emphasize or even exaggerate Russian and Chinese support, as he does it in the context of trying to entice Hezbollah and other Arab states to oppose Israel. And while China has a close relationship with the Palestinians and has refused to condemn them outright, their attitude towards Israel is best described as neutral to mildly critical in a self-interested way, rather than full-throttle support for the Palestinian cause.
Chinese officials predictably denied the comments. Asked about Mashal’s assertion on the 31st, People’s Liberation Army Lieutenant General He Lei responded emphatically: “How can the Chinese army follow the example of other armed organizations or armies?” He went on to say that China “has always stood for peace and will only counterattack in self-defense if we have to” and that “there is no timetable for the reunification of Taiwan.” And if there were to be a conflict, he said, “the responsibility for the conflict lies entirely with Taiwan. The key is the degree of interference from external forces and the methods of the Taiwan authorities.” While this kind of ambiguous rhetoric is par for the course when it comes to Chinese officials, it does not indicate any change in strategy, nor any reason to take Mashal’s comments at face value.
Playing the Taiwan Card
In addition to military and strategic repercussions, China’s response to the conflict has also caused Israel to “play the Taiwan card” in order to pressure China into changing its position. Israel’s de facto ambassador in Taipei, Maya Yaron, said on Thursday that Taiwan has been a “good friend” to Israel, while condemning China’s response to the Hamas attacks as “disturbing.” The comments, which come after China vetoed a U.S resolution in the Security Council calling for a ceasefire on the grounds that it was too weak, reflect Israel’s growing efforts to distance itself from China. This process was already underway over the last few years, as U.S. pressure led China to decrease its economic and political ties to China, especially in military and communications technology. In fact, it is likely that this is a major reason why China has continued to lean towards the Palestinians throughout this conflict: if Israel has already chosen the US side, then there is little to lose from drawing their ire.
Guns are like butter–they can be spread too thin
Still, the conflict is coming to impact Taiwan’s position in other, less predictable ways. Most significantly, there have been reports in the US and Taiwanese media that the United States is concerned that a wider war in the Middle East would distract them from their defense commitments and create an opening for a Chinese operation. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), said that if Hezbollah launches missiles from the border between Lebanon and Israel, it may directly impact U.S. military aid to Taiwan. If Hezbollah enters the war, Israel may request assistance from the United States to provide Patriot missile air defense systems. Currently, demand for the US air defense system exceeds the supply, so this may impact regional deployment in Asia. However, Kavanagh thinks it unlikely that this may create an opening for a Chinese invasion, but instead may provide Beijing with “additional flexibility,” allowing China to take more provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific region and continue to test the willingness of other Asian countries to resist its maritime claims.
