In today’s fractured information environment, trust has become a decisive asset of global power. Institutions worldwide—from government to media—are experiencing sharply declining trust. The 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals that, on average, only 49% of people across 28 countries trust institutions like government, media, business, and NGOs. Notably, government institutions ranked lower than business and NGOs, signaling a deep trust deficit that spans regimes and regions.
Although this paper focuses on foreign societies, it is essential to note that declining trust in institutions is not only a global trend but also visible in the United States. For intelligence professionals, this reinforces the universality of the challenge and the importance of methods that build credibility without overreach.
This matters for national security in a way that transcends borders. When public confidence in institutions erodes, societies become more vulnerable to disinformation, instability, and adversarial influence.
What We Explore in Beyond the Spy Game
Co-authored by John Sotos and Vafa Mostaghim, this paper asks: how should U.S. intelligence adapt in an era where institutional trust is fragile—globally and in foreign societies?
Key Takeaways
Trust as Strategic Capital
Trust is more than a virtue—it’s measurable and actionable. When trust in U.S. intentions is high, alliances are stronger, narratives resonate, and cooperative endeavors are more feasible. When trust wanes, adversaries gain traction.
The CFRU Proposal
We advocate creating a Civic Foresight and Resilience Unit (CFRU)—a non-operational, foreign-focused analytic capability to track trust and legitimacy. The CFRU provides early warning indicators of civic instability, sourced from narrative mapping, sentiment analysis, and resilience metrics.
How It Differs from Traditional Analysis
Unlike traditional regional estimates focused on leadership and policy, the CFRU specializes in civic ecosystem intelligence—monitoring public narratives, institutional trust, and civic cohesion. Crucially, it distinguishes between genuine solidarity and engineered conformity.
Applications Through Case Studies
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Iran: Rising Pessimism about Stability, Competence, and Women’s Rights Foreshadowed the Mahsa Amini Protests.
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Ukraine: Morale and institutional trust shaped resistance to aggression.
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Tunisia: Democratic backsliding illustrated the consequences of trust collapse.
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Taiwan: Sentiment shifts under pressure indicated resilience and resistance potential.
Why This Matters for Global Strategy
As the Edelman data shows, institutional legitimacy is under threat everywhere. The CFRU offers a framework for understanding and reinforcing civic trust abroad—a capability that can enhance strategic engagement, mitigate instability, and preserve democratic resilience.
Read the full paper here: Beyond the Spy Game: Intelligence as a Strategic Capability for Civic Resilience.
