Hardliners Haunted by COVID
According to a Johns Hopkins study that ended in March 2023, Iran lost nearly 2 percent of its population to COVID-19, placing it fourth in the world. If those numbers are correct, close to one and a half million Iranians died in the global pandemic, although Iranian sources report only a tenth of those figures. Now presidential hopefuls Alireza Zakani and Amir-Hosein Qazizadeh-Hashemi have turned those deaths and the delays in Iran’s import of vaccines into a campaign issue, laying the blame at the feet of former president Hasan Rouhani as a way to undermine reformist candidate Mas’ud Pezeshkian by association. Even the conservative Mehdi Arab-Sadeq of the Islamic Coalition Party was disgusted with the shameless politicking of Zakani and Qazizadeh-Hashemi, the “cover” candidates. Indeed, few can have forgotten that it was the supreme leader who explicitly and publicly opposed the import of British and American vaccines. A social media user on X suggested Iranians should stay away from the polls to show their disapproval of the “deluded old man.”
Street View of Election
Assessments from the street are confirming the lack of enthusiasm in the presidential election on 28 June. Various pundits and pollsters have reported on people’s lack of excitement and the anticipated low turnout. Donya-e-Eqtesad provides a view of people’s activities during the remaining few days before the election throughout Tehran, from uptown to downtown and even in the slums. The report concludes that this election is different from all previous ones in its lack of any enthusiasm and excitement compared to the past. Reporters are also observing a visible difference in candidates’ campaign headquarters, even with their lackluster campaign signs and activities during the closing days of the election cycle. People are busy with their day-to-day hustle and bustle rather than hanging posters or chanting campaign slogans.
Political Utility of Ghadir
Shiite clerics in Iran are rewriting an episode in Islamic history so it can justify Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s designation of a successor without giving the Iranian people a voice in the matter. Using ijtihad and all manner of interpretation, these clerics are actively expanding the episode at Ghadir Khumm, where Muhammad interceded to resolve a disagreement between Ali and some of his antagonists, to argue that the Prophet was, in fact, declaring Ali his successor and laying down the basis of the divinely mandated concepts of imamate and velayat. Indeed, there has been a push in recent years to celebrate and artificially inflate the importance of Ghadir as a major Shiite festival—something it never was in the past. This year’s festivities are the biggest ever. Despite the fact that the argument over succession in Islam is the chief reason for the sectarian divide between Shiites and Sunnis, many Islamic Republic apologists maintain that Ghadir serves as a point of unity. As for the implications, it would give the 85-year-old Khamenei religious sanction to decide who will replace him.
Digital Rial Unveiled
The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) has unveiled a digital version of the rial, the national currency, asserting that it functions like traditional banknotes and retains all their features except the physical. According to the CBI, the digital rial, which will soon be used in transactions with Russia and other countries, plays a crucial role in passive defense strategies, aiming to mitigate the impacts of sanctions. However, experts in the field are raising concerns that the digital rial could eventually phase out physical banknotes and even commercial bank accounts, granting the government extensive and tight control over individual transactions. This includes potential limitations on withdrawals from citizens’ accounts and restricted access to social services based on arbitrary definitions of violations.
Conservative Consensus around Qalibaf or Jalili
While the Paydari Front has endorsed Sa’id Jalili for president, the slightly less hardline Islamic Coalition Party has thrown its support to Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. With five candidates to choose from, the conservative camp faces a split, leading most pundits to conclude that the election will not be decided on the first ballot. The dilemma for the conservatives is deciding who has the better chance against the dreaded moderate, Mas’ud Pezeshkian. Could the conservative camp mobilize behind a single candidate? At least one poll shows that if Qalibaf were to step down, only 40 percent of his voters would switch to Jalili, while almost 21 percent would go over to Pezeshkian. Conversely, if Jalili stepped down, Qalibaf would receive 45.5 percent of his votes while Pezeshkian would get only 5.5 percent. This suggests that Qalibaf is a better candidate for the conservatives in a general election against Pezeshkian. Some hope the conservatives will reach a consensus on the candidate of their choice in a couple of days to strengthen their chances.
Iran Losing Out in Iraq
Iran and the U.S. are engaged in a low-grade cold war over influence in Iraq, a situation where the Islamic Republic has had the edge for several years because of its sponsorship of militant proxy groups. Now, however, Iran may be worried by the positions expressed against those groups by U.S. ambassador-designate to Iraq Tracey Ann Jacobson. Nor is the U.S. the only source of anxiety for Iran in its neighbor to the west. That is because Iraq, in partnership with neighbors like Türkiye, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, is forging ahead with its transit and transportation corridor, the so-called Development Road, which connects the Faw Peninsula near Basra to Europe via Türkiye. Scheduled for completion by 2050, the project will cost about $17 billion. Why should Iran be worried? Because it is cut out completely from involvement in the project, which will compete with its own planned transit corridors. Oddly, it seems Iran could have had a role but somehow chose not to.
Muted Response to Canada’s IRGC Designation
Reaction to Canada’s designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization has been far less intense compared to a similar measure by the United States, with the Supreme National Security Council and the Majles maintaining a studied silence. Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs predictably condemned Canada and registered its dismay with the Italian embassy, which protects Canadian interests in Iran. Some believe Canada’s move is the third prong of a concerted effort by the West to weaken Iran’s hand in future nuclear negotiations, after the suspension of negotiations by the United States and Europe’s pressure on IAEA’s Board of Governors to censure Iran. The election of a new president to replace Ebrahim Ra’isi could be the impetus for the West to exert more pressure on the incoming administration. Iran’s preoccupation with the election may, in fact, explain Iran’s muted response to Canada; or perhaps Canada does not carry the same weight for Iran as do the United States and the European parliament.
Inauguration of Rasht-Caspian Railway
The Rasht-Caspian railway line, marking the completion of the North-South Corridor, was inaugurated in a ceremony attended by Iranian and Russian officials. This key infrastructure project connects Iran’s southern ports to the northern Gilan province, enhancing regional trade. Officials hail it as one of the achievements of the late President Ebrahim Ra’isi, viewing it as pivotal for strengthening ties between Eurasian countries and the Persian Gulf nations, and as essential for advancing Iran’s resistance economy policies. The railway is poised to alleviate economic challenges, sanctions, and psychological pressures, benefiting not just Gilan but potentially easing economic strains across the Caspian and Eurasian regions, and among distant European allies.
Iran’s Diplomatic Push amid U.S. Efforts to Broker Israel-Hamas Ceasefire
Amidst jubilation from hardline outlets over Hezbollah’s use of an advanced reconnaissance drone to capture images of sensitive military sites in Israel and the resulting escalation in tensions, the unscheduled visit of caretaker Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri-Kani to Qatar has drawn attention. During his visit, Baqeri-Kani met with Qatari officials, appeared in the Qatari media, and had a meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Official reports state that Baqeri-Kani’s trip aims to mobilize Islamic nations to end the “genocide” in Gaza and expedite aid to Gazans. However, reformist newspapers suggest that Baqeri-Kani also received an American message about potentially ending the Gaza conflict—a scenario presumably favored by Iran. Despite the deaths of President Ra’isi and Foreign Minister Hosein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s diplomatic engagements, especially with resistance forces, continue unabated. In another noteworthy development, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon and Iran’s military attaché met with the commander of the Lebanese army shortly after a senior Biden administration envoy visited Lebanon to advance the Israel-Hamas ceasefire proposal.
Presidential Election, Learned Disappointment
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants to see massive voter turnout in the election of a “revolutionary” president, but reformists anticipate lackluster numbers. Mohammadreza Tajik, a theoretician of the reformist persuasion, considers it highly unlikely that middle-class voters would participate. The absence of a charismatic personality, the lack of any legitimate reference group, and more importantly the learned helplessness of the people will prevent their participation. Reformist journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi predicts that the current political atmosphere will bring no more than 40–50 percent to the polls. He contends that people’s bitter experiences have robbed them of their motivation. In addition, he says, the approved candidates are staying away from controversial issues of the day. Since none represents change, voters have no motivation.
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