Zarif’s Strategic Return:
Former foreign minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif has significantly ramped up his public appearances. He is advocating a shift of focus towards public satisfaction with governance over reliance on military might, an approach that would distance Iran from direct involvement with “proxies”—a term he wishes to avoid. His people-versus-weaponry dichotomy has drawn criticism from the IRGC, but the ministry of foreign affairs and Iran’s permanent mission to the UN like his notion of the “independence” of resistance forces. Zarif’s resurgence coincides with escalating regional tensions, the approach of elections, and mounting criticism of the current foreign minister’s performance.
Despair-Driven Emigration:
Observers are identifying despair, more than economic factors, as the primary catalyst for the increasing emigration of Iranians. The entrenchment of the incompetent, combined with the Nezam’s radicalism and failure to tackle issues such as hijab, the environment, and access to the Internet, have alienated the elite and fostered widespread disillusionment. This has resulted in a surge in emigration. The trend, affecting various age groups and professional sectors—most notably medical professionals in recent times—stems largely from dissatisfaction with the government’s alignment with hardline policies.
Geopolitical Challenges in Afghanistan, South Caucasus:
Aside from the tensions in Gaza, Iran must contend with the persistent challenges arising from the Taliban in Afghanistan and instability in the South Caucasus. Various Afghan factions rely on Iran’s solidarity in their fight against Taliban tyranny in much the same way as the resistance against “Israeli occupation.” Afghan commentators advocate for Iran to play mediator between the Taliban and the Afghan opposition out of self-interest. Observers are also cautioning Tehran to beware of EU moves to exacerbate tensions between Armenia and Russia. The potential realization of the Zangezur Corridor, pursued by Azerbaijan and Turkey, remains a critical concern for Iran, threatening its geopolitical standing.
Attempt at Currency Stabilization, Liquidity Management Effective in Short Term:
Warnings of an impending U.S. attack notwithstanding, a perceived easing of regional tensions is helping the Iranian economy, with depositors responding positively to a proffer of certificates of deposit at a 30-percent interest rate by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI). This could absorb excess liquidity and calm the FOREX market. The temporary sense of calm belies such challenges as persistent sanctions and the value of the national currency. Cautious economic forecasts still project recession and an inflation rate of 35 to 50 percent, but for now the FOREX rate, previously soaring to the 60,000-tuman mark, has stabilized.
Elections: Hardliners Confident, Reformists All But Boycotting:
Moderates cannot field a comprehensive slate of candidates for Tehran—a crucial election battleground—which gives hardliners a path to victory. Mohammad Khatami’s prescription for an ideal election stops shy of directly advocating for a boycott, but suggests it strongly. Leading reformist politicians will support individual candidates, but not stand behind any candidate slate. The conservatives, meanwhile, are not united, but well positioned for a win thanks to favorable candidate vetting. The real question is whether the conservative winners will challenge Majles Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.
Iran-Russia Relations Not So Buddy-Buddy:
While Tehran and Moscow continue to rely on each other for military cooperation at a time of war and tension, Hamid Hakim, a student of Eurasian affairs, tells the hardline Quds Online news outlet that long-term strategic cooperation between the two countries is starting to appear more doubtful because of the unreliability of Russia as a partner. Former MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who used to chair the Majles national security and foreign policy committee, says that the Russians have sacrificed the JCPoA, the nuclear deal Iran had struck with the West, at the altar of the Ukraine war.
Continued Ideological ‘Purification’, Declining Public Support:
Amidst the heightened sensitivity surrounding the upcoming elections, the relentless ideological “purification” of universities continues unabated. The push to expel post-revolution professors underscores a broad erosion of public support for the regime. Likewise, authorities have detained economic journalists for their uncensored reports on the nation’s economic challenges. The increasing hostility towards the educated and the elite is a significant catalyst for emigration. The consolidation of hardline power in the elections would do little to help.
