China shocked the world by playing an important role in the Saudi-Iran normalization deal. Now, Beijing seems to be angling to support another regional peace process: the on-going rehabilitation of Bashar al-Assad.
Bashar’s recent spate of diplomatic good fortune seems to be directly tied to Iran-Saudi normalization. Shortly after agreeing to the resumption of ties, both countries started engaging with Syria in more substantial and public ways. Iran signed several oil agreements with the embattled nation, while Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister met with Assad in Damascus for the first time since the outbreak of the civil war. On May 7th, Bashar was officially re-admitted to the Arab League with full support from Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese media have been closely following the story, and has framed Assad’s rehabilitation as the dividends paid by China’s recent diplomatic efforts. Before the recent developments, Chinese officials had consistently urged humanitarian and diplomatic action to resolve the crisis, and repeatedly criticized the US position. CGTN attributed the move to the “atmosphere of peace” that has overtaken the Middle East in recent months. In a report entitled “Arab diplomats reach consensus on Syria war,” one journalist cited the “earthquake two months ago [that] seemed to push those hesitant neutral countries towards Syria” and pointed out that “chances of normalizing relations between Riyadh and Damascus rose sharply after Riyadh and Tehran, Assad’s main ally, announced an agreement last month to restore diplomatic ties.” While Chinese media are careful not to claim exclusive credit for China, it is difficult to deny that the latest developments are best understood in the context of China’s diplomatic roll through the region. When Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud in Jeddah on April 12, the same day that an Iranian delegation arrived in Riyadh to prepare for the reopening of the embassy and consulate, Chinese media reported that an Arab diplomat based in Riyadh told Agence France-Presse: “It is unbelievable that the Iranian and Syrian delegations appeared in Saudi Arabia on the same day. This was a fantasy a few months ago.”
More intriguing is the fact that Chinese officials have shown signs of getting involved in the process themselves. On April 30th, Bashar al-Assad met with Zhai Jun, China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, in Damascus. Bashar congratulated China on successfully mediating the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Syrian President said that he believed that the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran will have an important and positive impact on the international situation and regional situation. He expressed that Syria “appreciates China’s positive work in promoting the improvement of Syria’s relations with other Arab countries, and welcomes China to play a greater role in maintaining regional peace and stability.” Zhai Jun referenced several phone calls between Xi and Bashar in 2021 that “injected a strong impetus for the development of China-Syria relations” and praised Bashar’s leadership of the “Syrian people” in the “struggle against terrorism and interference.” The same day, Syria’s Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Susan gave an interview to Xinhua in which he praised China’s “respect [for] international law and the sovereignty of all countries.” In particular, he praised out China’s proposal for a political solution to the Ukraine crisis and its mediation efforts to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. “The United States and the West have been trying to create and spread doubts among countries in the region in order to intensify tensions, thereby serving the hegemonic interests of the United States, but are bringing suffering to the people of the countries in the region.” He also emphasized that the Iran-Saudi reconciliation would “help ease tensions” and “ensure regional security and stability.”
Ultimately, this is another example of China piggybacking on a regionally-driven peace process. As the United States turns its attention towards the Pacific and is increasingly unable to guarantee security in an era of drone strikes and cyber warfare through traditional military strength, the countries in the region have plenty of reasons to want to reduce tensions and find a way to live with one another, instead of relying on the deterrent of US military intervention. In fact, it is possible that because the evolving nature of warfare prevents any nation from guaranteeing security or achieving hegemony, peace and stability have become more attractive alternatives to a perpetual state of Hobbesian conflict. But the Chinese press is not incorrect to point out that without the “earthquake” of Iran-Saudi normalization, the process would likely have remained stalled. Only time will tell if China will be directly involved in the rehabilitation of al-Assad, but it certainly deserves credit for indirectly creating the conditions that made it possible.
