In light of Moscow’s recent expression of support for the UAE’s claims over Persian Gulf islands claimed by Iran, experts from various political backgrounds are calling on Iranian authorities to reevaluate their policies concerning Eastern allies and adopt a more balanced approach to foreign policy. While there are signs that this wake-up call has resonated with senior decision-makers, Iranian authorities appear inclined to concentrate on shared threats and maintain friendly relations with Moscow, albeit potentially moving away from a “strategic” alliance.
An op-ed by Ali-Akbar Velayati, the supreme leader’s senior foreign policy advisor, provides a stark warning to Russian “friends” regarding the broader political landscape and the shared threats faced by Tehran and Moscow. Offering a historical perspective, Velayati highlights the West’s “plots” against the former USSR, Syria, and the Middle East, reminding Russia of Iran’s significant sacrifices in Syria. Pointing to what he describes as Washington’s disruptive actions in instigating a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine, and at the cost of Europe, Velayati sheds light on NATO’s alleged scheme to tighten the noose around Iran and Russia using the pretext of the Zangezur corridor between Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Velayati cautions that this project, carried out by Turkey, could open doors to Western and Israeli interference, leading to heightened tensions in the region. He attributes these actions to Westerners’ desire for control over energy resources in the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus, warning that both Iran and Russia must be vigilant and protect their shared interests. Pointing to the Chinese and Russians’ support for the UAE’s “baseless” claims about the disputed islands, Velayati suggests that the two countries are being naïve, thinking that endorsing such claims would result in lucrative economic relations with the UAE.
At the same time, another noteworthy article appeared on IRNA, the administration’s official outlet, explaining that Tehran’s relations with Moscow and Beijing are tactical rather than strategic. This represents quite a reversal, considering that since at least 2017 senior Iranian officials, including both President Ebrahim Ra’isi and his predecessor Hassan Rouhani have characterized Iran’s ties with Russia as “strategic.” The IRNA article serves as a response to those questioning why Russia does not protect Iran’s interests, such as in the matter of the disputed islands. However, it also contains a significant admission that Iran does not have a strategic partnership with any global power and that during the transition period to the new world order, anything is possible. For instance, the United States and China may emerge as new world leaders, or power may be shared among various countries and regions like China, Russia, Europe, and America (see Daily Summary of 12 July 2023: “Realities of New World Order Begin to Sink In”). Writer and researcher Hosein Mehditabar argues that Tehran must continue to derive benefits from its tactical and even lower-scale cooperation with Moscow, but it would be a “mistake” for authorities to rely on a strategic partnership with Russia—an error that could cause trouble in major decision-makings and make Iran look needy.
Within the Majles, legislators, including those from the principlist camp, openly criticized Russia, emphasizing Iran’s territorial integrity as a crucial red line, and asserting that Iran’s support for Russia is not unconditional. Abdolreza Davari, media advisor to former President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, perceives these strong reactions from MPs as indicative of a shifting political landscape in Iran, where Russophile voices are marginalized, and new possibilities emerge. Meanwhile, one prominent critic of Iran’s current policy towards Russia is centrist former MP Ali Motahhari, who characterizes Russia’s recent actions as a wake-up call for Iranian Russophiles. Given Iran’s strong anti-Western stance, Moscow’s support for the UAE should not come as a surprise, as it understands Iran’s reliance on Russia. To resolve this predicament, Iranian decision-makers need to abandon their Eastward focus and return to the original principle of maintaining a balanced stance between East and West. Even the senior economic advisor to Iran’s president expressed firm opposition to Russia, asserting that Iran will never revert to the Pahlavi or Qajar dynasties. He emphasized that Iran’s relations with certain countries are not based on weakness. International relations commentator Hasan Beheshtipur sarcastically commended Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs for finally summoning Russia’s ambassador to Tehran for questioning regarding Moscow’s behavior. Beheshtipur cautions against dismissing Russia’s conduct, highlighting the UAE as a sanctuary for Russian capital and a channel for evading sanctions. While Russia has chosen to support the UAE and partially Saudi Arabia while maintaining ties with the West, it is essential to acknowledge the significant costs Iran has incurred due to Russia’s involvement in the matter of drones. The author contends that Iran must assert its strength and prompt Russia to reconsider its actions in order to safeguard its national interests.
