The analysis of the Wagner Group’s rebellion by Iranian media highlights the importance of adopting a calculated and balanced approach to foreign policy. It also sheds light on the dangers posed by paramilitary groups to the central power system of the country.
The reformist perspective, in particular, highlights Russia’s challenges due to its military ambitions, reflecting the revolutionary aspirations of hardline groups within the IRGC. Reformist academic Elaheh Kula’i warns that the Wagner Group rebellion serves as a cautionary signal for Iran, emphasizing the need for a balanced foreign policy and expanding relations with both the West and the East. The hardline 8 am news outlet takes a different stance on the crisis caused by the Wagner militia, recognizing the challenges posed by paramilitary forces as a double-edged sword. Concerned about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s miscalculations in the Ukraine war, reformist media have begun to raise alarms regarding the Russian leader’s precarious political situation. Initially starting the Ukraine misadventure as a calculated military operation, Putin inadvertently led his country into a worsening proxy conflict with Western powers. He is now facing new challenges from Russian oligarchs, political and military elites, as well as public opinion within Russia. The centrist outlet Fararu highlights three significant indicators of Putin’s declining power. First is the presence of two Russian paramilitary groups, considered serious opponents of Putin, near the Belgrud 22 nuclear site within Russian territory. This situation led the Russian government to relocate the nuclear weapons instead of directly confronting the paramilitary groups and securing the site. Second was the drone attack on the Kremlin and the successful penetration of the Russian air defense system, which demonstrated vulnerabilities and weaknesses. Last is the existence of a serious rift within the Russian intelligence system, the replacement of top-tier military generals, and the attempted coup by the Wagner Group, all of which indicate a significant power struggle among Russian commanders in managing the ongoing war. According to reformist media, Putin’s control over power and his final say in managing internal crises seem to be weakening. Reformist analyst Diako Hoseini highlights the fact that Russia became involved in a military conflict for which it was not adequately prepared. He further emphasizes the tension and disagreements among Russian military commanders, suggesting potential unrest within Russia. The reformist perspective highlights the challenges and internal dynamics that Russia is currently facing due to its military ambitions. This perspective mirrors concerns and objections reformists harbor regarding the underlying revolutionary aspirations of hardline groups within the IRGC.
Interestingly, while mainstream principlist media downplay the crisis caused by the Wagner militia in Russia, the principlist 8sohb (8 am) news outlet, licensed to Ehsan Taqaddosi—a journalist with a background in IRGC-affiliated media—has taken a different approach. In a piece that reflects on the challenges militias pose to states, the hardline outlet calls paramilitary forces a double-edged sword. It argues that, based on their specific nature, paramilitaries are focused solely on pursuing immediate economic interests and do not believe in concepts such as national interests, moral values, and the like. Consequently, they can change their position quickly from an ally to a rival or even an enemy if their immediate interests demand it. Highlighting the historical utilization of paramilitary forces in the region, 8sobh recognizes them as contributing factors to both the downfall of states and the rise of new powers. As a result, the outlet concludes that states are better off adhering to traditional conflicts and avoiding involvement in risky proxy wars with unpredictable paramilitary groups. Reformist analyst and former diplomat Fereidun Majlesi also highlighted that there is a lesson to be learned for any state that mobilizes mercenaries.A notable piece of analysis is Kula’i’s. A renowned professor of international relations in Iran, she served previously as a dissertation advisor to Mohammad-Hosein Baqeri, the chief of Iran’s Armed Forces, and has maintained academic collaboration with him on research projects. Kula’i believes the Wagner Group incident serves as a warning to Iran. She urges Iranian policymakers to take a warning from Russia’s extensive exploitation of Iran’s anti-West sentiments and advises them to heed the imperatives arising from Iran’s geopolitical situation. She believes that the rebellion of the Wagner Group signifies more than a mere uprising against Putin. It reflects the deep divisions among Russia’s military and political elites regarding the state of the Ukraine war, largely influenced by the fear of costly battles in the final years of the Soviet Union. Kula’i emphasizes the need for Iran’s policymakers to restore a balanced position in foreign policy. Instead of relying solely on the East, she believes, Iran should work actively towards expanding relations with both the West and the East. She further explains that Iran should not become a mere “playing card” for Russia, but rather utilize the conflicts of interest between the East and the West to strengthen its regional and international standing.
