Statements from Iranian officials, foreign reports, and specific developments like the apparent relaxation of sanctions on oil sales all point to the potential for a broader agreement between Tehran and Washington. Nevertheless, observers remain cautious about the possibility of selective media sensationalism regarding the discourse of negotiations between Iran and the U.S.
Apart from the official recognition of the potential for discussions with JCPoA partners and U.S. officials during the upcoming September session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), French President Emmanuel Macron has also expressed an intention to return to the Iran agreement. The reformist outlet Arman-e Melli perceived this as indicative of a resolute stance between Tehran and Washington towards progressing to the subsequent stages of revival of the JCPoA. Conversely, within the same outlet, analyst Mehdi Motahharnia interprets any news surrounding the 2015 nuclear agreement more as a form of “news therapy.” He deems the revival of the JCPoA to be as improbable as a miracle. Nonetheless, he contends that the discourse around the JCPoA might guide discussions towards a new agreement, employing the same structure but with different content—yet again, a prospect he views as improbable. Foreign Minister Hosein Amir-Abdollahian’s declaration that “Iran no longer holds any frozen funds in any country” has touched off considerable speculation among reformist-leaning outlets. Some analysts regard this assertion as overly implausible and lacking specificity, raising the possibility of a larger undisclosed accord between Iran and the U.S. In essence, while these observers monitor the lack of reaction in the FOREX market and harbor suspicions that these comments might align with the recurrent strategy known as “hope therapy,” they continue to entertain the notion that a more extensive agreement might indeed be underway. For analyst Ali Bigdeli, recent developments such as prisoner exchanges, the release of some of Iran’s frozen assets, the uptick in Iran’s oil sales, and the measured easing of U.S. oil sanctions collectively signal a looming resumption of the JCPoA talks. While he acknowledges the unlikelihood of direct U.S.-Iran meetings, he remains optimistic that Iran can capitalize on opportunities presented at the UNGA to fortify relations with Europe. Bigdeli underscores the pivotal role the EU can play in guiding Iran’s interactions with the global community. Mirroring other reformist analysts, Bigdeli underscores that Iran’s path to economic prosperity rests on resolving issues with the JCPoA and collaborating with the FATF. He emphasizes that the Islamic Republic must reshape its attitude within the global order and recalibrate its relations with regional nations, as these countries will not act without U.S. consent. Bigdeli asserts that even though Riyadh pledges investments in Iran, unless Tehran addresses the two aforementioned challenges, Arab states in the region cannot commit to investing in Iran. Reformist analyst Jalal Khoshchereh, on the other hand, contends that foreign reports, particularly those from outlets like Newsweek and Bloomberg, form part of a media strategy where news is disseminated in a fluctuating manner, aimed at inducing shocks within public opinion—a dynamic he cautions authorities to be vigilant about, as it ultimately leaves the public weary. Shedding light on what he terms as Iran’s astute strategy of dual diplomacy—namely, de-escalation or tension moderation with Washington, while concurrently fostering ties with Russia—Khoshchehreh underscores the conjecture fueled by imminent occurrences, such as the IAEA’s Board of Governors meeting and the October deadline for the JCPoA, regarding the nuclear negotiations. He does not dismiss the potential for an accord with the Biden administration, but posits that such an arrangement could take the form of an implicit understanding rather than a formal agreement.
In the lead-up to the forthcoming meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Governors, the remarks of nuclear officials carry substantial weight in the discourse surrounding the potential for an agreement (Daily Summary of 28 August 2023: “Navigating Prospect of Agreement with West”). In his recent statements, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi acknowledges the persistence of disputes but underscores the fact that dialogue with Iran has not come to a halt. In addressing the concerns of unspecified countries in the region regarding Iran’s nuclear activities, Grossi contends that these factors collectively underscore the necessity for reestablishing a framework—whether the JCPoA or an alternative agreement—that grants the nuclear watchdog a clear comprehension of Iran’s actions. He reiterates that while Iran’s right to enrichment is not contested, Tehran must provide credible assurances to the global community. Grossi’s remarks, notably, are constructive and refrain from either confirming or discrediting the claims made by Iranian nuclear officials regarding the partial resolution of conflicts with the IAEA.
