While Iran’s economy continues to decline and Ra’isi administration officials ignore calls for social change, academics and pundits are warning about a profound despair that has gripped society, signaling growing public distrust in officials who have punished people for demanding their rights and dashed any hopes for reform. In a similar vein, a prominent reformist cleric is cautioning that strict enforcement of Islamic law is prompting Iranians to turn their backs on religion. The heightened concerns about public discontent come as some pundits predict that voter turnout could sink to below 25 percent in the March 2024 Majles elections, further exacerbating the regime’s legitimacy crisis.
Sa’id Mo’idfar, the head of the Iranian Sociological Association, drew attention to the despair that has engulfed Iranian society, especially youth and elites who believe the government is unwilling to listen to them and wants to punish them for protesting. Mo’idfar, a university professor who was forced to retire after the 2009 nationwide protests, told Aftab-e Yazd outlet that with the recent policies of replacing university professors, the little hope left had disappeared. As a result, he did not see a bright future for the country. According to this scholar, the country had reached a point where the possibility of emigrating, which mostly applied to those in high academic or economic classes, had now extended to ordinary people and had become a dream for almost everyone. Mo’idfar was not alone in his interpretation of today’s Iranian society. Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, a member of the reformist Society of Combatant Clerics, warned President Ebrahim Ra’isi in an open letter about the consequences of ignoring the country’s social, economic and political problems. The reformist cleric urged Ra’isi to ease up on religious indoctrination, insisting such propaganda could cause people to lose interest in religion. In his view, religion had suffered great damage largely because of excessive and public insistence on religiosity, which every psychologist and sociologist knew would have the opposite effect.
Highlighting concerns about social dissatisfaction leading to low turnout in the upcoming Twelfth Majles election, journalist Sa’id Naji predicted that voter turnout would hover between 25 and 30 percent, possibly even plummeting to below 25 percent. In an editorial in the reformist E’temad Online, Naji pointed out that the data on expected voter turnout was based on statistics from previous Majles elections and included demographic information from all 31 provinces. According to Naji, mounting problems in the country, the recent protests and criticism that followed, the administration’s weakness in addressing the crisis, and its inability to respond effectively to new and old demands, especially from youth, had all set the stage for low voter participation. In his opinion, unless officials took action to hear people’s views and make changes, voter participation would continue to decline and fail to exceed 30 percent on average in the country.
