Will Water Shortage Trigger Protests in Iran?

The water crisis in Iran is an urgent issue that demands immediate action from both the government and the public. Despite the government’s transitory implementation of water rationing plans, experts believe that without long-term planning to address the water shortage, the country is likely to experience further tensions related to water scarcity.

Data from the National Water Data and Information Center of Iran shows that between Q4 2022 to Q1 2023, 14 provinces have experienced decreased precipitation compared to the same period last year. The province of Hormozgan is an extreme case, having received only 96.5 millimeters of precipitation, which marks a 52-percent decrease from the same period last year. However, the situation in other regions is no better. Ahmad Vazifeh, the head of the National Drought and Climate Change Management Center, warned that during May, Tehran, Qazvin, Semnan, Razavi Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Kerman provinces will face severe water shortages, causing significant damage to agriculture from low water levels at dams and minimal river flow. The CEO of the Mashhad Water and Wastewater Company has reported that the province’s dam storage capacity is currently at only 13 percent, and this limited supply is still decreasing. Alireza Fakhari, the governor of Tehran province, has addressed the issue of water scarcity in Tehran, acknowledging the severity of the situation, but arguing that it has not yet reached the level of a crisis. Fakhari emphasized the importance of implementing an effective water consumption system and maximizing the use of available water resources in order to prevent a potential crunch. Amid Iran’s looming water crisis, officials have predominantly resorted to blaming citizens for excessive water consumption. Mohsen Ardakani, the head of Tehran’s Water Waste Management, stated that the annual consumption of drinking water in Tehran province reaches 1.5 billion cubic meters, a level that cannot be sustained given the amount of precipitation. Therefore, in addition to implementing technical and engineering measures to address Tehran province’s water supply, it is critical to observe water consumption patterns and reduce consumption by 25 percent. Despite the government’s short-term implementation of water rationing plans, experts warn that without a long-term strategy to address the water shortage, the country is likely to experience further tensions arising from water scarcity. Farshid Shokrkhoda’i-Bahrevari, the head of Iran’s Sustainable Development, Environment and Water Commission, stated that the water crisis in Iran is bound to persist due to climate change and careless water usage, including excessive extraction of underground resources. In his view, the government’s contradictory stance of prioritizing both the conservation of water resources and achieving food self-sufficiency is unfeasible. Shokrkhoda’i-Bahrevari argued that as a result of these events, water tensions are expected to escalate, potentially leading to strikes, road closures, and other similar tensions.

In recent years, Iran has experienced water shortage tensions in many provinces. The summer 2021 protests were a series of anti-government demonstrations that first emerged in response to water scarcity in various cities across Khuzestan province and eventually spread to several others. Arash Mosleh, CEO of the regional water company in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province, recently argued that despite an increase in surface water precipitation, the southwestern province will undoubtedly face water shortages and tensions in the upcoming summer season.

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